{"id":30847,"date":"2026-05-05T22:00:33","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T15:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huanqiuribao.com\/?p=30847"},"modified":"2026-05-05T12:08:42","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T05:08:42","slug":"%e4%bc%a0%e5%a5%87%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%ef%bc%9a%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%a4%a7%e9%9a%be%e4%b8%b4%e5%a4%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huanqiuribao.com\/?p=30847","title":{"rendered":"\u4f20\u5947\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u96be\u4e34\u5934"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4f20\u5947\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u524d\u7f8e\u6797\u8bc1\u5238\uff08Merrill Lynch\uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u7b56\u7565\u5e02Gary Shilling\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u80fd\u591f\u963b\u6b62\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4eca\u5e74\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n

Shilling\u8fd1\u65e5\u5728\u63a5\u53d7Business Insider\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u60b2\u89c2\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eca\u5e74\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u51e0\u4e4e\u5df2\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u3002<\/p>\n

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Shilling\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u8dcc\u591a\u8fbe30%\uff0c\u718a\u5e02\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u5230\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n

Shilling\u79f0\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u552f\u4e00\u53ef\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u884c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u8f6e\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\uff0c\u6216\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u90fd\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f4f\u623f\u5e02\u573a\u51bb\u7ed3\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u5f00\u652f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4fe1\u53f7\u6d6e\u73b0<\/p>\n

Shilling\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5df2\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u8870\u9000\u8fb9\u7f18\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u8ba1\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u5e02\u573a\u4ecd\u5927\u4f53\u5904\u4e8e\u51bb\u7ed3\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53bb\u5e74\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\uff0c\u6210\u5c4b\u9500\u552e\u66fe\u77ed\u6682\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u7740\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\u5229\u7387\u91cd\u65b0\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u8d2d\u623f\u6d3b\u52a8\u5df2\u660e\u663e\u653e\u7f13\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u5f00\u652f\u4e5f\u5728\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d44\u672c\u5f00\u652f\u8861\u91cf\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u65b0\u589e\u62db\u8058\u3001\u5b9e\u4f53\u8bbe\u5907\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u76f8\u5173\u8d44\u672c\u5f00\u652f\u6b63\u5728\u6fc0\u589e\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u5f00\u652f\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u4ec5\u589e\u957f3.9%\uff0c\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\u8d85\u8fc724%\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6536\u5165\u548c\u50a8\u84c4\u53cc\u53cc\u627f\u538b\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5982\u5c65\u8584\u51b0<\/p>\n

\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u7ea6\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u652f\u6491\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u529b\u91cf\u30023\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u957f\u4ecd\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u7ea62%\u7684\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0cShilling\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6301\u7eed\u9762\u4e34\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u672c\u5df2\u627f\u53d7\u75ab\u60c5\u4ee5\u6765\u7d2f\u8ba1\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u53c8\u5f00\u59cb\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6cb9\u4ef7\u98d9\u5347\uff0c3\u6708\u4efd\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6da812.5%\uff0c\u521b\u4e0b2022\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5927\u6da8\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6536\u5165\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u57283\u6708\u4efd\u653e\u7f13\u81f30.4%\uff0c\u4e3a\u7ea6\u4e09\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e74\u5ea6\u4e2a\u4eba\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u4e5f\u964d\u81f33.6%\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u4e3a2022\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

Shilling\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4ece\u6536\u5165\u548c\u4eba\u4eec\u6d88\u8d39\u610f\u613f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u8584\u7684\u51b0\u9762\u4e0a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u201c\u4ee4\u4eba\u7729\u6655\u201d\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6050\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u8c03<\/p>\n

\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u65b9\u9762\uff0cShilling\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u5df2\u81a8\u80c0\u81f3\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u5230\u4e09\u9879\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u9879\u662f\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u7ecf\u901a\u80c0\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5e2d\u52d2\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\uff08Shiller CAPE\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u76ee\u524d\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u524d\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u9879\u6307\u6807—-\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5e02\u9500\u7387\u548c\u5e02\u51c0\u7387—-\u4e5f\u4f20\u9012\u51fa\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

Shilling\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u9879\u6307\u6807\u5747\u5904\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u80a1\u7968\u975e\u5e38\u6602\u8d35\uff0c\u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u8fdc\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u5927\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u5176\u5bf9\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u9884\u671f\u662f2026\u5e74\u5e95\u3002<\/p>\n

Shilling\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u6807\u51c6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e0b\u8dcc20%\u621630%\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b97\u4ec0\u4e48\u5927\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4e0b\u8dcc\u89e6\u53d1\u70b9\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u4f46\u9690\u85cf\u98ce\u9669\u6216\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728<\/p>\n

Shilling\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u4ec0\u4e48\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u89e6\u53d1\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5f80\u5f80\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u884c\u4e3a\u5f15\u53d1\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u73b0\u5728\u5e76\u4e0d\u8ba4\u540c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u70ed\u6f6e\u5fc5\u7136\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u90a3\u4e9b\u9690\u85cf\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u770b\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u4e1c\u897f\u660e\u663e\u5230\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f15\u53d1\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u629b\u552e\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Shilling\u4ee5\u957f\u671f\u770b\u7a7a\u5e02\u573a\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u56db\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e00\u76f4\u63d0\u9192\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8b66\u60d5\u6f5c\u5728\u8870\u9000\u548c\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u6781\u7aef\u6295\u673a\u201d\u89e6\u53d1\uff0c\u5e76\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u5230\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u70ed\u6f6e\u3002<\/p>\n

FX168\u8d22\u7ecf\u62a5\u793e<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u514d\u8d23\u58f0\u660e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u65b0\u95fb\uff08\u6216\u56fe\u7247\uff09\u4e3a\u5206\u4eab\/\u63f4\u5f15\/\u50a8\u5b58\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5176\u5185\u5bb9\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u672c\u62a5\/\u672c\u7f51\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u5982\u6709\u9519\u8bef\u6216\u76f8\u5173\u4fb5\u6743\u8bf7\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u5220\u9664\uff0c\u8c22\u8c22\uff01<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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